{"id":34410,"date":"2017-03-14T13:00:48","date_gmt":"2017-03-14T17:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/retrofitmagazine.com\/?p=34410"},"modified":"2022-10-17T12:55:25","modified_gmt":"2022-10-17T16:55:25","slug":"dr-doti-provides-economic-forecast-at-aama-conference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/retrofitmagazine.com\/dr-doti-provides-economic-forecast-at-aama-conference\/","title":{"rendered":"Dr. Doti Provides Economic Forecast at AAMA Conference"},"content":{"rendered":"

The American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA)<\/a> hosted Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus at Chapman University, and Donald Bren, Chair of Business and Economics, at the AAMA 80th Annual Conference in Phoenix. Doti provided an economic forecast and shared some predictions specific to the housing market.<\/p>\n

“The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University provides a forecast of real gross domestic product (GDP) in terms of accuracy,” says Doti. “Due to the recent presidential election, statisticians have gotten a bad rap. That said, Chapman has been correct in previous elections ever since Nixon.”<\/p>\n

Doti offered a forecast of what he called “Trumpenomics.”<\/p>\n

“It’s difficult to forecast, as Trump has proven to be unpredictable,” says Doti. “However, I’m confident he’ll give a reduction in corporate and business taxes. It almost has to happen.”<\/p>\n

Also likely is an increase in defense spending. Somewhat less likely, but still probable, is that “Obamacare” will be revised. At this time, the probability of infrastructure spending rising is low to medium.<\/p>\n

“There’s not a lot of political support for that,” Doti explains.<\/p>\n

With regard to “short term Trumpenomics,” Doti gave a nod to the Keystone Pipeline, but acknowledged that everything is going to take a lot longer than we think.<\/p>\n

The most likely impact of Trumpenomics, according to Doti, is inflationary expectations.<\/p>\n

“When interest rates go up, the stock market goes down, right?” says Doti. “If you believe this view, you should be getting out of the stock market. But that’s a fallacy. Don’t think the market is being negatively affected by decreasing level of interest rates. Be more interested in the spread,” advises Doti.<\/p>\n

“When we forecasted the last recession in 2007, we saw the spread turn negative in 2004, as it always does before a recession,” he states.<\/p>\n

“The takeaway? When the feds start increasing interest rates, that spread will stay positive for a bit before it turns negative.”<\/p>\n

In terms of the housing market, Chapman predicts a jump in household net worth, saying that incomes and wealth are up.<\/p>\n

“This impacts the GDP. Housing affordability is a little lower now and will be this year, too, but it currently takes an average of 4.5 months to sell a home,” says Doti.<\/p>\n

“We predict 4.9 percent growth in housing starts and a 6.5 percent increase in residential construction spending,” states Doti, adding that Chapman also predicts a 3.3 percent increase in commercial construction spending.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, Doti noted that we are experiencing the third-longest economic recovery in recorded U.S. history.<\/p>\n

In addition to being an economist, Doti has had several guest appearances as a finance-focused character named “Chapman,” like his university, on “The Bold and the Beautiful”. He shared a clip with those participating in his session.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) hosted Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus at Chapman University, and Donald Bren, Chair of Business and Economics, at the AAMA 80th Annual Conference in Phoenix. Doti provided an economic forecast and shared some predictions specific to the housing market. “The A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":193,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Dr. Doti Provides Economic Forecast at @AAMAInfo Conference","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[201],"tags":[1983,23590,1984,1034,23589,8851,3674,4057],"ppma_author":[48882],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nDr. Doti Provides Economic Forecast at AAMA Conference - retrofit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA) hosted Dr. Jim Doti, president emeritus at Chapman University and Donald Bren Distinguished Chair of Business and Economics, at the AAMA 80th Annual Conference in Phoenix.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/retrofitmagazine.com\/dr-doti-provides-economic-forecast-at-aama-conference\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dr. Doti Provides Economic Forecast at AAMA Conference - 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