Nearly 1.3 Billion LED Lamps Expected to Ship Annually by 2021

The rise of light-emitting diode (LED) technology is affecting every part of the commercial lighting industry. Falling prices and improving quality are driving widespread adoption of LEDs, and this single technology appears likely to surpass all others in nearly every metric of quality and efficiency. According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide unit shipments of LED lamps will grow from 68 million in 2013 to 1.28 billion annually by 2021. The markets for every other lighting technology will contract over that period.

“LED lighting has already begun to enter the commercial market in significant volume and will grow rapidly over the remainder of the decade,” says Jesse Foote, research analyst at Navigant Research. “Specific applications, such as cold storage, have already seen widespread LED adoption, while spaces that are currently lit by efficient linear fluorescent lamps await further LED price declines. The industry has entered a period of rapid upheaval as established and startup companies scramble to position themselves to benefit from the rise of LED lighting.”

Although shipments of LED products will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 44.3 percent through 2021, according to the report, they will not be sufficient to compensate for the overall decline in commercial lighting revenue as the industry moves toward much more long-lasting lamps. Lamp and luminaire revenue will grow for the next few years, the study concludes, before beginning an inexorable decline in 2017.

The report, “Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets,” examines the worldwide market for energy-efficient lighting in commercial buildings, including LED, fluorescent, halogen, and high-intensity discharge lamps and luminaires. The report details the market drivers for these technologies, including electricity costs, green-building certifications and improved controls, as well as the remaining barriers to adoption. Profiles of leading industry players are provided, along with global forecasts for unit shipments and revenue through 2021, segmented by region and by lamp type. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.